<
https://theconversation.com/beijings-plausible-deniability-on-arms-supply-is-quickly-becoming-implausible-and-could-soon-extend-to-iran-261148>
"China has long maintained that it does not supply arms to any party at war – a
central tenet of its “noninterference” foreign policy. But in recent years,
Beijing has repeatedly faced accusations of doing the opposite: providing
direct military assistance to nations engaged in conflict, while publicly
denying doing so and even adopting a position of diplomatic neutrality.
That has seemingly been the case for two of China’s closest allies: Russia in
its war against Ukraine and Pakistan during its recent armed standoff with
India in May.
Now, Beijing is facing scrutiny over alleged military links to Iran – a country
engaged in a long-running shadow conflict with Israel that recently tipped into
a short-lived hot war.
After the ceasefire that followed the 12-day war in the Middle East, China
reportedly supplied batteries for surface-to-air missiles to Iran in exchange
for oil. Such parts are a critical military need for Tehran after its air
defense network was severely damaged by Israeli missiles.
The Chinese Embassy in Israel denied the reports, stating that China firmly
opposes the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and does not export
arms to countries at war. But China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has yet to
issue an official statement on the alleged transfer.
As an expert specializing in China’s grand strategy, I think it is highly
possible that China would offer Iran military support while denying it
publicly. Such plausible deniability would allow Beijing to assert military
influence and showcase some of its hardware, while deflecting international
criticism and preserving diplomatic flexibility.
But the tactic works only so far. As indirect evidence accumulates, as many
suggest it is, such covert action may gradually develop into an open secret –
leading to what scholars term “implausible deniability,” where denial is no
longer credible even if it is still officially maintained."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
