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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/aug/28/collapse-critical-atlantic-current-amoc-no-longer-low-likelihood-study>
"The collapse of a critical Atlantic current can no longer be considered a
low-likelihood event, a study has concluded, making deep cuts to fossil fuel
emissions even more urgent to avoid the catastrophic impact.
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) is a major part of the
global climate system. It brings sun-warmed tropical water to Europe and the
Arctic, where it cools and sinks to form a deep return current. The Amoc was
already known to be at its weakest in 1,600 years as a result of the climate
crisis.
Climate models recently indicated that a collapse before 2100 was unlikely but
the new analysis examined models that were run for longer, to 2300 and 2500.
These show the tipping point that makes an Amoc shutdown inevitable is likely
to be passed within a few decades, but that the collapse itself may not happen
until 50 to 100 years later.
The research found that if carbon emissions continued to rise, 70% of the model
runs led to collapse, while an intermediate level of emissions resulted in
collapse in 37% of the models. Even in the case of low future emissions, an
Amoc shutdown happened in 25% of the models.
Scientists have warned previously that Amoc collapse must be avoided “at all
costs”. It would shift the tropical rainfall belt on which many millions of
people rely to grow their food, plunge western Europe into extreme cold winters
and summer droughts, and add 50cm to already rising sea levels.
The new results are “quite shocking, because I used to say that the chance of
Amoc collapsing as a result of global warming was less than 10%”, said Prof
Stefan Rahmstorf, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in
Germany, who was part of the study team. “Now even in a low-emission scenario,
sticking to the Paris agreement, it looks like it may be more like 25%.
“These numbers are not very certain, but we are talking about a matter of risk
assessment where even a 10% chance of an Amoc collapse would be far too high.
We found that the tipping point where the shutdown becomes inevitable is
probably in the next 10 to 20 years or so. That is quite a shocking finding as
well and why we have to act really fast in cutting down emissions.”"
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
