Slashing migration would actually lead to higher house prices in Australia. Here’s why

Thu, 11 Sep 2025 03:30:57 +1000

Andrew Pam <xanni [at] glasswings.com.au>

Andrew Pam
<https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/sep/10/slashing-migration-would-actually-lead-to-higher-house-prices-in-australia-heres-why>

"Think closing our borders would fix the housing crisis? Think again.

Eliminating migration for the coming decade would actually leave property
prices 2.3% higher by the mid-2030s than would be the case under a “base case”
of migration continuing as expected, according to economic modelling by KPMG;
and there are other negative economic consequences too.

The temporary post-lockdown surge in net migration is now on the wane, but it
appears to have left behind a heightened level of national sensitivity to the
issue.

For example, a survey by JWS Research from November last year suggested 78% of
Australians thought housing access and affordability was now a “national
crisis”.

That’s hardly shocking.

What was perhaps more surprising was that 67% of respondents agreed with the
statement that Australia should reduce its migration intake to reduce pressure
on the housing market (70% backed the other option of providing incentives for
people to move to the regions).

These may be leading questions, but it shows how Australians are ready to blame
immigrants for their various woes – particularly when it comes to emotive
issues such as housing.

The right of politics has been keen to exploit these concerns, especially given
the Albanese government’s unwillingness to articulate a longer-term strategy
for migration."

Cheers,
       *** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net               Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/                 Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/            Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/               Manager, Serious Cybernetics

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