<
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/sep/20/australias-fossil-fuel-earnings-set-to-fall-by-50bn-a-year-by-2035>
"The value of Australia’s coal and gas exports is predicted to plummet by 50%
over the next five years as global demand for fossil fuel falls, according to
Treasury modelling.
The modelling, released on Thursday as the government announced its emissions
reduction target for 2035, found the annual value of fossil fuel exports is
predicted to fall by more than $60bn by 2030 under any future scenario of
emissions reduction within Australia.
Energy experts said the modelling suggested the long forecast drop in fossil
fuel production and export in Australia could come sooner than some realised.
“This is dropping the truth bomb again,” said Alison Reeve, the energy and
climate change program director at the Grattan Institute.
“We have been saying for a long time that if the rest of the world goes for net
zero, then it will stop buying our coal and gas.”
The Treasury modelling was released as part of a slew of climate reports this
week that included the first detailed climate risk assessment and the
government’s plan to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
Treasury modelled three different scenarios: a “baseline” under which existing
policies, targets and agendas were followed; a “renewable exports” scenario
that includes growth in green hydrogen and other green exports; and a
“disorderly” scenario under which the government set weak or no targets for
2035.
The expected combined value of coal and liquified natural gas exports crashed
across all scenarios from about $130bn in 2025 to less than $70bn in 2030.
Fossil fuel exports would continue, but be worth less than $30bn by 2050,
according to the modelling."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
