Price check: how a public grocery chain would disrupt NZ’s supermarket duopoly

Wed, 1 Oct 2025 18:32:20 +1000

Andrew Pam <xanni [at] glasswings.com.au>

Andrew Pam
<https://theconversation.com/price-check-how-a-public-grocery-chain-would-disrupt-nzs-supermarket-duopoly-265844>

"It’s roughly a month since the government announced new supermarkets would
qualify for fast-track approval in an effort to inject real competition into
the sector. Too soon to see progress, perhaps, but not too soon to question the
likely success of that approach.

While fast-tracking may address the problems of commercial zoning, slow
consenting and regulation that have frustrated would-be competitors, there is
no guarantee a major player will emerge.

Meanwhile, consumers will continue to pay the price for what is effectively a
supermarket duopoly between Foodstuffs and Woolworths.

It’s unlikely, too, that the Commerce Commission’s proposed changes to the
Grocery Supply Code will cure the underlying malaise. These are primarily
aimed at rebalancing bargaining power between suppliers and major supermarkets,
not substantial price reductions for consumers.

The Commerce Commission is also conducting an inquiry into how well the
wholesale market is operating, given concerns about how big supermarkets are
restricting smaller retailers’ access to benefits such as supplier rebates,
discounts and promotional payments.

While reform on this front could be effective, the tendency of smaller
retailers to align their pricing strategies with dominant supermarket chains –
known as “price leadership dynamics” – may undermine any downward pressure on
retail prices.

In essence, any slight reshuffling will recalibrate the balance of power
between suppliers, wholesalers and retailers. But consumers may see little
direct benefit."

Cheers,
       *** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net               Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/                 Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/            Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/               Manager, Serious Cybernetics

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