Gas and high coal penetration are the drivers of expensive, volatile power prices

Wed, 15 Oct 2025 04:37:49 +1100

Andrew Pam <xanni [at] glasswings.com.au>

Andrew Pam
<https://reneweconomy.com.au/gas-and-high-coal-penetration-are-the-drivers-of-expensive-volatile-power-prices/>

"Analysis of National Electricity Market (NEM) price data reveals a strong
relationship between the share of gas and coal generation and wholesale
electricity prices.

When gas-fired generation exceeds 6% of the supply mix, nearly all
volume-weighted prices (VWP) rise above $100 per megawatt-hour (MWh). Once the
gas share passes 10%, the VWP typically approaches or surpasses $150/MWh.

Similarly, when coal maintains a share above 55%, the average price not only
increases, but the market also experiences more pronounced volatility. This is
a result of inflexible base-load operations and the ongoing costs associated
with maintaining ageing coal infrastructure."

Cheers,
       *** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net               Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/                 Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/            Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/               Manager, Serious Cybernetics

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