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https://theconversation.com/hurricane-melissa-is-a-warning-why-violent-storms-are-increasingly-catching-the-world-off-guard-268604>
"Hurricane Melissa is tearing through the Caribbean, bringing record-breaking
wind and torrential rain to Jamaica – the island’s first ever category 5
landfall. What makes Melissa so alarming isn’t just its size and strength, but
the speed with which it became so powerful. In a single day, it exploded from a
moderate storm into a major hurricane with 170mph winds.
Scientists call this “rapid intensification”. As the planet warms, this violent
strengthening is becoming more common. These storms are especially dangerous as
they often catch people off guard. That’s because forecasting rapid
intensification, although improving, remains a huge challenge.
Better forecasting will depend on more detailed monitoring of a hurricane’s
inner core – especially close to the eyewall, where the strongest winds occur –
and on higher-resolution computer models that can better capture a storm’s
complex structure. New machine learning (AI) techniques may help but are
largely untested.
As things stand, rapidly intensifying storms mean that communities are often
provided little warning to evacuate, and government agencies may have little
time to make preparations, such as opening evacuation shelters or preparing
critical infrastructure.
That’s what happened with Hurricane Otis in Mexico in 2023 and Typhoon Rai in
the Philippines in 2021. Both rapidly intensified shortly before landfall, and
hundreds of people died because they were unable to reach safety.
Fortunately, the chance of Melissa reaching a category 5 hurricane was forecast
sometime before it made landfall, helped by the storm moving very slowly
towards Jamaica."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
