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https://theconversation.com/could-a-grey-swan-event-bring-down-the-ai-revolution-here-are-3-risks-we-should-be-preparing-for-268394>
"The term “black swan” refers to a shocking event on nobody’s radar until it
actually happens. This has become a byword in risk analysis since a book called
The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb was published in 2007. A frequently
cited example is the 9/11 attacks.
Fewer people have heard of “grey swans”. Derived from Taleb’s work, grey swans
are rare but more foreseeable events. That is, things we know could have a
massive impact, but we don’t (or won’t) adequately prepare for.
COVID was a good example: precedents for a global pandemic existed, but the
world was caught off guard anyway.
Although he sometimes uses the term, Taleb doesn’t appear to be a big fan of
grey swans. He’s previously expressed frustration that his concepts are often
misused, which can lead to sloppy thinking about the deeper issues of truly
unforeseeable risks.
But it’s hard to deny there is a spectrum of predictability, and it’s easier to
see some major shocks coming. Perhaps nowhere is this more obvious than in the
world of artificial intelligence (AI)."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
