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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/17/heatwaves-hotter-longer-more-frequent-net-zero-emisisons-delay>
"Heatwaves will become hotter, longer and more frequent the later net zero
emissions is reached globally, new research suggests.
Scientists at the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather and
Australia’s national science agency, the CSIRO, simulated how heatwaves would
respond over the next 1,000 years, examining the differences for each five-year
delay in reaching net zero between 2030 and 2060.
The research, published in the journal
Environmental Research Climate, found
that for countries near the equator, delaying net zero until 2050 would result
in heatwave events that break current historical records at least once yearly.
The study also suggests that heatwaves will not revert back towards
preindustrial conditions for at least a millennium after net zero is reached,
which “critically challenges the general belief that conditions after net zero
will begin to improve for near future generations”.
“The thing with net zero and heat waves is: we’re damned if we do, but we’re
completely stuffed if we don’t,” the study’s lead author, Prof Sarah
Perkins-Kirkpatrick of the Australian National University, said. “We’re already
locked into a certain amount of warming.”
Stabilising global heating at 1.5C or 2C would still result in impacts “that we
haven’t yet experienced, including worse heatwaves”, she said. “The thing is,
if we delay net zero – up to 30 years and even longer – those impacts are only
going to get worse. We’re already locked into some, but the longer we leave net
zero, the worse it’s going to be.”
“[In Australia] you have the Coalition basically saying: net zero is useless,
it’s pointless, it’s not worth it, it’s going to cost us too much money,” she
said. “Well, it’s going to cost us even more if we don’t even get to net zero
by 2050.”
“The silver lining to this sort of study, if there is one, is that we have time
to adapt … so when these heatwaves occur, we’re as prepared for them as
possible,” she said. “We know the impacts of heatwaves – there’s so much
understanding about the health impacts, ecosystem impacts, impacts on financial
services.
“What those adaptation strategies look like – that remains to be seen,” she
said. “Those conversations can start now.”"
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
