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https://www.npr.org/2025/11/19/nx-s1-5593087/climate-tipping-points-cop30-brazil-coral-glaciers-carbon>
“World leaders are heading into the final days of COP30, the United Nations
climate meeting in Brazil. They are trying to agree on how to curb global
warming and pay for the costs of an increasingly hotter planet.
For the past eight years, one of the primary objectives of the annual
negotiations has been to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared
to the temperatures in the late 1800s. That temperature goal was established
after a landmark international scientific report laid out the catastrophic
effects of exceeding that amount of warming.
But that goal is no longer plausible, scientists say. Humanity has not cut
planet-warming pollution quickly enough, and the planet will exceed 1.5 degrees
Celsius of warming, likely in the next decade, according to a recent United
Nations report.
However, all is not lost. If countries can cut overall greenhouse gas emissions
in half by 2035, scientists say the planet would quickly return to lower levels
of warming.
"We must move much, much faster on both reductions of emissions and
strengthening resilience," U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell told world leaders
at COP30. Right now, countries are pursuing policies that would cut emissions
by just 12% by 2035.
"The science is clear: We can and must bring temperatures back down to 1.5
[degrees Celsius] after any temporary overshoot," Stiell said.
If countries follow through on current promises to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions, the latest estimates suggest that Earth's temperature will top out
around 2.5 degrees Celsius of warming this century.
The latest science also makes clear the profound human costs of exceeding 1.5
degrees Celsius of warming, even temporarily. The planet has warmed about 1.3
degrees Celsius, according to the World Meteorological Organization. And
communities are already experiencing more dangerous storms, flooding and heat
waves.
When the planet heats up beyond 1.5 degrees, the impacts don't get just
slightly worse. Scientists warn that massive, self-reinforcing changes could be
set off, having devastating impacts around the world.
Such changes are sometimes called climate tipping points, although they're not
as abrupt as that term would suggest. Most will unfold over the course of
decades. Some could take centuries. Some may be partially reversible. But they
all have enormous and lasting implications for humans, plants and animals on
Earth.
And every tenth of a degree of warming makes these tipping points more likely,
according to a new report from 160 international climate researchers.”
Via Kenny Chaffin.
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
