<
https://reneweconomy.com.au/memo-to-lnp-aemc-says-slowing-renewables-sweating-coal-a-recipe-for-20-pct-power-price-hike/>
"There’s good news and bad news in the latest electricity price trends report
from the Australia Energy Market Commission (AEMC). The good news: Electricity
prices are on track to fall by 5 per cent over the next five years thanks the
swathe of new renewable energy resources and big batteries continuing to join
the grid.
The bad news: From 2030 on, further delays to the rollout of large-scale wind
generation and major transmission upgrades, coupled with further reliance on
unreliable, ageing coal-fired power plants and costly gas will send annual
household electricity prices soaring in the other direction.
In its
Residential Electricity Price Trends 2025 report, the AEMC says that
more delays to building wind and transmission projects will add more pressure
to annual household electricity prices, lifting them by as much as 20 per cent.
AEMC modelling found less wind and new transmission in the grid could cause
wholesale energy market spot prices to almost double, by requiring expensive
gas to step in more often during peak periods.
“Under our base case [the Step Change scenario in the
2024 Integrated System
Plan], this build out is not projected to be fast enough… due to a tightening
supply-demand balance in the wholesale market after 2030,” AEMC said in its
Residential Electricity Price Trends report, a decade-long outlook.
“This is projected to increase reliance on more expensive gas generation,
together with a slower CER uptake, raising costs to meet evening peak demand.”
The rule maker also issued a stern warning on any plans to keep coal fired
power stations open for longer, such as are being adopted by the current
Queensland state government.
“Prolonging the life of existing coal plants to meet future demand growth could
pose significant price risks, with increased outages potentially adding up to 5
per cent to prices,” it said.
In response to this warning, federal energy minister Chris Bowen said the
AEMC’s quiet part out loud.
“The Australian Energy Market Commission make clear slowing the renewables
rollout and sweating ageing, unreliable coal will drive up energy bills and
pollution. Yet this is exactly what the Coalition’s anti-renewables plan is
designed to do,” he said in a statement.
“It’s simple when coal breaks down your bills go up – that’s why we’ve got to
keep rolling out reliable renewables, and help more households embrace solar
and batteries.
“The Coalition’s anti-renewables plan will cost Australians more.”
The Climate Council put that cost into actual numbers following the AEMC
report, saying another major coal failure, such as the 2021 explosion at
Callide station in Queensland which put one of its units out of action for
three years, would lift bills by $606 for households and by $1,182 for
businesses in 2030."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
