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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/mar/11/donald-trump-war-iran-ego-trip-economic-damage>
"Waging war with no fixed purpose means victory can be declared at any point.
Donald Trump’s motives for launching Operation Epic Fury against Iran were
incoherent at the start. They are no clearer now that he has declared it “very
complete, pretty much”.
US and Israeli bombs have caused death and destruction, shaking but not
toppling the government in Tehran. Among the targets was the supreme leader,
Ali Khamenei. He has been replaced by his son – an “unacceptable” candidate in
the US president’s evaluation.
Regime change was the plan, but Trump finds it easier to change plans than
regimes. What began as a long-haul commitment to roll back decades of Islamic
revolution has become a “short-term excursion” to neutralise Iran’s military
capabilities.
Trump has not quite declared “mission accomplished”. He says he has won, but
also that he has more winning to do. This is the familiar stage of rhetorical
climbdown, indicating dawning awareness that a problem is more complicated than
the president initially thought. Complexity resists his whim. It bores him.
Iran turns out to be unlike Venezuela, except in a superficial analysis as
energy-exporting countries with a history of hostile relations with Washington.
The model of regime decapitation and coercion that saw Nicolás Maduro kidnapped
from Caracas and replaced with his compliant vice-president earlier this year
whetted Trump’s appetite for an Iranian sequel. But the Islamic Republic has
reserves of ideological and institutional resilience. It can also spook
international markets by menacing trade in the Gulf.
The White House seems not to have anticipated the predictable economic
repercussions of war in the Middle East – soaring oil prices, falling stock
markets, disrupted supply chains feeding inflation and choking growth.
Flashing red lights on the financial dashboard were surely the prompt for
Trump’s pledge to bring his military adventure to a swift conclusion. A tacit
deal has come into view. Forget freedom. Iranians can still be repressed as
long as shipping through the strait of Hormuz is unmolested.
Another push for regime change is possible, but no one should be surprised by
retreat to lesser goals. This is the Trump method. It was the story of his
“liberation day” tariffs, ramped all the way up, then dialled partway down to
ease panic on global markets. It was the pattern with threats to annex
Greenland, issued with maximum bellicosity, later softened under pressure from
European allies.
The trend is established enough to have its own acronym: Taco – Trump always
chickens out. That implies a more complete withdrawal of bad ideas than
actually happens. The average US tariff rate is still the highest it has been
for a century. The claim that Greenland rightfully belongs to the US has not
been retracted. The common ground where European democracies once thought they
stood with the US is still churned up with suspicion.
Each spasm of egotistical power degrades trust and sabotages the international
framework for settling differences by negotiation."
Cheers,
*** Xanni ***
--
mailto:xanni@xanadu.net Andrew Pam
http://xanadu.com.au/ Chief Scientist, Xanadu
https://glasswings.com.au/ Partner, Glass Wings
https://sericyb.com.au/ Manager, Serious Cybernetics
